How do you feel?

Originally Posted by piperman

I try not to think about it, there is nothing I can do. Wife and I both work for the same company and have been there for a while so if they have a lay off we should be okay, But what we did do is pay off all the Crdit Cards and put them is a jar of water and freezed them, going to try the debt free process.

Dave Ramsey..I did his plan and got rid of 17K of debt in 6 months.

[SvilleKid]

Some probably call me a pessimistic, and say that my attitude only fuels the crisis. I say that I lived through the 1979-2001 recession, which was much worse than any since then. I was in the real estate appraisal business then, self employed, and had a handle on the economic issues. I recognized the coming recession a good 6 months before it was mentioned in the main stream press. With a pending marriage, and suspecting the probably extent of the coming recession, I took a position with the state's largest bank in 1980, with the responsibility of dealing with foreclosures and foreclosed properties.

Many of the same developer practices present then are present now. With the exception of negligible interest rates now, many of the same political and economic factors present the are present now. The historic low interest rates is actually a hindrance today, in that the FED loses lowering interest rates as a way to "warm" the market back up. Like it or not, the collapsed real estate market is at the heart of the current problems, and that collapse was evident (at least to me and others being realistic) as long as two years ago. At that time, I told my son and wife that we would be in a collapsed real estate market inside of two years, and that it would take at least two years to turn it around, and another 12 to 18 months to return to a positive real estate market that would support a growing economy.

We ARE in a recession. No heads hidden in the sand. Won't change the facts. I kinda stand by my predictions for 36 to 42 months to get back close to where we were a year ago. So, say Fall, 2010, but more probable Spring, 2011. Now, though, I'm wishy-washy. When the July and September NYSE numbers are removed from the rolling three month averages, we will see that the stock market has had MORE volitility than existed after the stock market crash that ushered in the Great Depression. ALL the REAL economic numbers point to BAD, BAD times, not to cheery times ahead. And, the people in charge, and thos that will be in charge are all pursuing potential policies that are no more than band aides on an open chest wound.

God, Dave, I wish I was wrong. Hope I am wrong. Pray about being wrong. I am not one that has stopped spending, but I also have gotten myself in as good of a financial position as possible in this market.

I won't starve, the house is paid for, and I can bring the family back home and tough things out if things turn really ugly. I hope they don't turn ugly, but I WILL NOT bet my future on the failure of others to realistically look at all factors, not just the ones they are feed by those with ulterior motives. To many basic economic indicators are wrong at this time. And, consumer confidence is a reactive (or following) indicator, not a leading, controlling indicator. While feeling good is always best from a mental health standpoint, it cannot lead an economy out of failure unless there are realistic changes to the good that the Consumer confidence Index can react to.

Pessimistic or realistic?? I don't know about others. I do know that currently, and looking to the next 18 months, i see nothing to be Optimistic about.

[macms]

Originally Posted by SvilleKid

Pessimistic or realistic?? I don't know about others. I do know that currently, and looking to the next 18 months, i see nothing to be Optimistic about.

Quoted for truth.

[Da Klugs]

I agree with Cliff from a Macro economic standpoint. (I'm and economist by training plus all those nights in the Holiday Inn express. )

My point in posting this thread had more to do with looking at things from personal perspectives. 94 out of 100 of us statistically have jobs today. How you say things has a big impact on the emotional reception. Sounds different than Unemployment went up by 12% to 6% this week. If things go as predicted this might bottom out in the 90-92 range before there is much improvement. We are probably headed into "the great depression of this century". But what does that mean in todays context as opposed to the 1930's? Unless we see 25-30% unemployment it's hardly the same. Not good news for many but not sleeping on the street with starving children. I see the current process as a massive redistribution of wealth with the homeowners and stockowners taking huge hits. Effective current income will actually go up for those with jobs due to recessionary pressure on all forms of prices and historic low interest rates. It's almost as if we are nationalizing wealth in the form of deficit spending to cover the sins of the past 10 years in the financial, housing and auto markets. If the rest of the mature industrialized world wasn't doing the same thing the value of the dollar would plummet. Since the world is now intertwined more economically than at any time in the past, we are in new territory.... the how you feel territory. Unwinding and deleveraging applies to more than just the financial institutions.

[Genetic Defect]

good to have a job bad that another 35+ coworkers don't

[GoatLocker]

Originally Posted by Da Klugs

We are probably headed into "the great depression of this century". But what does that mean in todays context as opposed to the 1930's? Unless we see 25-30% unemployment it's hardly the same.

I heard some talking head today say "In the Great Depression people waited in line for apples. Today, people are waiting in line for Apple computers." I think people need to keep things in perspective. Even if we hit 30% unemployment using today's economic models, it's not the same as back in the 30's when most families had only one "bread winner". A significant portion of today's 30% would still have income via a spouse.

Hopefully, we will learn some lessons from this recession/depression and start living within our means, saving and preparing for lean times.

Myself? I'm stocking up on cigars!

[TripleF]

The thing that annoys me the most is the loss of HOPE. All my life I've always had the sense that things could be changed or improved and right now I don't believe that is the case.

What's happening right now is affecting the world and that's a little bigger than the USA.

[Tenor CS]

I'm stressed because I teach high school music. If more budget cuts come through, I fear that arts might be on the chopping block. Not even teaching is a "stable" job anymore. I might have to teach reading or something else that I'm not certified in.

[BigBruce]

Well My job is really recession proof. I believe the army is still hiring as we speak. As for my over all life it is being affected by the recession. My girlfriend was laid off from work last week. She has a BA in interior design. Can't find work anywhere including wal-mart and other small jobs. She has student loans coming due in January. Plus she has no health insurance as she has been out of school for 6 months. Now I'm looking at my government paycheck wondering if I can even get married. So all day I think about this crap. Guess all I can do is just hope for the best along with every other American.

[Genetic Defect]

Originally Posted by BigBruce

Well My job is really recession proof. I believe the army is still hiring as we speak. As for my over all life it is being affected by the recession. My girlfriend was laid off from work last week. She has a BA in interior design. Can't find work anywhere including wal-mart and other small jobs. She has student loans coming due in January. Plus she has no health insurance as she has been out of school for 6 months. Now I'm looking at my government paycheck wondering if I can even get married. So all day I think about this crap. Guess all I can do is just hope for the best along with every other American.

the Army is to picky I would sign on in a heartbeat

[M1903A1]

Originally Posted by BigBruce

Well My job is really recession proof. I believe the army is still hiring as we speak. As for my over all life it is being affected by the recession. My girlfriend was laid off from work last week. She has a BA in interior design. Can't find work anywhere including wal-mart and other small jobs. She has student loans coming due in January. Plus she has no health insurance as she has been out of school for 6 months. Now I'm looking at my government paycheck wondering if I can even get married. So all day I think about this crap. Guess all I can do is just hope for the best along with every other American.

Tell her to check into what deferments are available from the holder of her note, and to work 'em every which way she can.

[Jason]

I feel frustrated and have for a long time. Hopefully working through these times we get some clarity, we all learn things and behaviors that will ripple through the generations to come, producing more honest and compassionate human beings. The world needs more honest compassionate loving human beings. Tough times tend to make more of em, so yay for tough times.

[Texan in Mexico]

Very interesting and thought provoking thread Mr. Klugman.

It is hard for to me add onto what others have said so I will stick with personal experiences.

I work in the tourism industry.

I went through 9/11 when the planes and ships simply stopped coming for a few months...

I have had the good fortune of living through some helacious storms in both the Eastern and Western Caribbean.

One in particular Wilma, was a Cat 5 that sat on top of Cozumel for over 40 hours. I was in Vallarta at another one of our projects and had left the gf and dogs back home and couldnt get back to them before it hit, worse than being there I tell you.

The storm wiped us clean - not a stick left of our facility and we scrambled to get things back up and running about a year later and we are still paying off the financing from that blow.

One of the reasons I come to this Forum is for hope. There are good people here that share some of the same basic tenets in life that I do and that care about their fellow human beings.

This gives me hope, with hope and a bit of faith things tend to work out.

So how do I feel?

There is a constant stress to make payments, make payroll, to pay taxes, continue to make payments and work on capital investments. I am not alone, I know, when I say this type of stress can lead you to an early grave if you are not careful.

In short I feel blessed and fortunate.

I feel blessed to share this Forum with you BOTL & SOTL and I am fortunate to be in love and have five dogs that I adore and vice versa.

If we can work out this automobile issue we should all be making the turn in the economy by mid-summer 09 by my calculations, of course alot depends on what our new President does.

I dont mean to act like an economist in Klug's thread but save what you can while you can - mid-Summer 09 is a still a ways off.

Thank you for listening to the ramblings of some guy smoking a Siglo III at his kitchen table in Cancun.

Respectfully,

Travis

[MikeyC]

I hate to sound merely like an echo, but like a lot of others I'm concerned. I've only been on this earth a little over three decades so this next statement doesn't mean too much but this is by far the worst economic crisis of my lifetime. I have faith that things will turn around eventually. My main concerns are . . .

1. How much longer until it turns around?
2. How BAD will things be when we find the bottom?

[galaga]

Originally Posted by MikeyC

I hate to sound merely like an echo, but like a lot of others I'm concerned. I've only been on this earth a little over three decades so this next statement doesn't mean too much but this is by far the worst economic crisis of my lifetime. I have faith that things will turn around eventually. My main concerns are . . .

1. How much longer until it turns around?
2. How BAD will things be when we find the bottom?

I think Cliff, Sivillekid, has it about right. Read his post. It's housing market driven and we've got to work our way through all the back log of bad loans, over inflated prices bubble. How bad it will get, who knows. We've all eaten a steady diet of Raman before and pray that a major health or job loss emergency hits.

[gettysburgfreak]

Every single day I feel sick to my stomach knowing I turned down a job in August where I could have lived and worked in my favorite place in the entire world. I now spend what seems like hours on end staring at my computer screen trying to find a freaking job in the Washington DC and getting monster headaches. Every day it seems like my ray of hope is getting smaller and smaller as I realize I can't find **** with a history and political science degree. It seems like I am not qualified for anything and I feel like the only government jobs are for people with a degree in business or accounting and its driving me up a wall. What the hell are these people doing to get these government jobs? Where are they getting their qualifications from? The US Senate had on their website an email address in which to send your resume to news senators looking for employees. I sent a resume and cover letter to 40 of them and have not gotten one response back yet, WTF! Ive had more stress in my life in these past few months trying to find a career then I ever had in my life and I have this empty feeling like I will never find a job. So how am I feeling right now. Not Fu#king happy.

[Da Klugs]

Start feeling better now.

[Da Klugs]

Originally Posted by Texan in Mexico

Thank you for listening to the ramblings of some guy smoking a Siglo III at his kitchen table in Cancun.

Respectfully,

Travis

Thanks for sharing. I feel like smacking you virtually with envy over location as it snows and snows here.

Your story is not unlike many entrepreneurs who have had to "start over" sometimes more than once. For me it was 5 times. First 3 with virtually nothing but what was between my ears and legs.

Economic times like this are a concern for everyone. Fear is the worst possible reaction though. Fear keeps you on the couch vs going out finding "what you need" be it more business, interviews etc. Action, energy and effort will always yield greater results than the couch. Many in the Midwest have had to become locationally entrepreneurial and move to other places in the country that are growing and have jobs. OH is the # 1 producer of teachers graduating from colleges in the country. It has a declining population though so many must leave the state to find work. I have many friends who have "moved south" due to the general decline in industry here over the past 10 years. The rest of the country is now feeling the pain that many in the Midwest have been through and continue to experience in housing price delcines, reduced employment opportunities, etc.

[Ratters]

Originally Posted by Tenor CS

I'm stressed because I teach high school music. If more budget cuts come through, I fear that arts might be on the chopping block. Not even teaching is a "stable" job anymore. I might have to teach reading or something else that I'm not certified in.

You can teach special ed like me and never have to worry. Good luck man, I know a few teachers in your position feeling the same way, especially with all the budget problems here in CA.