Random thoughts while drinking

[TonySmith]

You are probably right Mark, which was my question. Random isn't really random

[markem]

Originally Posted by TonySmith

You are probably right Mark, which was my question. Random isn't really random

Well, no, random is random. Each time a song is selected to play, all the songs available have an equal chance of being selected. That includes the one that just finished as well (the choice of the next song is independent of the list of songs previously played). For a very small sample size, maybe like less than a million songs selected and played, there may be a bias towards or against certain songs (which equate to a number in a list, so to speak). However, over time, one will find that, with a good random number generator (that's key) the number of times that each song has been played approaches the same number.

The coin flipping problem is a very simple case but on point. For a balanced coin (that's key, again), the odds are exactly even that the flip will result in heads or tails. That it comes up heads 10 times in a row doesn't mean that there is a greater or lesser chance of tails on the next flip (think of that as "independence" between coin flips). Similarly, that a song isn't picked in a specific window of listening doesn't mean that it isn't equally likely as any other song to be played next.

I've had a fair bit of tequila, so I'm going to stop here.

okay, maybe not stopped. Swing by random.org and have some fun with randomness. Their algorithms are quite good in my experience.

[awsmith4]

I like beer

[Average Joe]

Originally Posted by markem

The coin flipping problem is a very simple case but on point. For a balanced coin (that's key, again), the odds are exactly even that the flip will result in heads or tails. That it comes up heads 10 times in a row doesn't mean that there is a greater or lesser chance of tails on the next flip (think of that as "independence" between coin flips). Similarly, that a song isn't picked in a specific window of listening doesn't mean that it isn't equally likely as any other song to be played next.

Yahtzee.

TonySmith, you're thinking of randomization with ascending odds for the unpicked songs. What the system is doing is not reducing the pool of songs to be picked from. Still random, just different odds.

If the songs played in order of their tracks, and cycled through the CD's in order, that would not be random.

[awsmith4]

Good music, good beer, randomize = Robert Johnson+Widespread Panic = Robert Randolph

[markem]

Originally Posted by Average Joe

TonySmith, you're thinking of randomization with ascending odds for the unpicked songs. What the system is doing is not reducing the pool of songs to be picked from. Still random, just different odds.

When I make my song lists for my iPod, the random selection scheme looks like a drawing from a hat (where once a song is selected, it isn't put back in to the hat). I think that this is what many would like for their "random" selection - put all the songs in a random order without repeats until all are played.