Lets talk about the Swine flu...

[Conch Republican]

Originally Posted by mrreindeer

Adam, it kinda reminds me of what inspired this nifty little game: http://www.balloonboygame.com/

That's awesome!

haha

What a lot of people don't realize is that much of the real concern regarding this flu is that it is only a small number of mutations away from something that could wreak havoc on the population. Given the propensity for the flu to mutate (its a horribly unregulated genetic reproducer, compared to most other virus genomes...that's why there is a yearly vaccine vs only one vaccine for chicken pox, as chicken pox is genetically stable), its not unreasonable for H1N1 to change into a real killer and then it will be too late to enact immunizations. Meanwhile, the normal seasonal flu probably has a similar mortality rate to it as H1N1, its genetic markers are too far removed from the Spanish Flu to likely be much threat in mutating into that killer.

The caution shouldn't be regarding what H1N1 is, but what it could become. That said, it is reasonable to take precautions seriously. But, rash decisions, panic, sensationalization should not be part of the equation. But, it seems that the media only knows one way to sell commercials.

Originally Posted by Cyanide

Meanwhile, the normal seasonal flu probably has a similar mortality rate to it as H1N1, its genetic markers are too far removed from the Spanish Flu to likely be much threat in mutating into that killer.

The caution shouldn't be regarding what H1N1 is, but what it could become. That said, it is reasonable to take precautions seriously. But, rash decisions, panic, sensationalization should not be part of the equation. But, it seems that the media only knows one way to sell commercials.

That was very interesting. H1N1 has been the prevalent strain for many years. It is the Spanish Flu everyone is worried about. Any flu has just as much chance to mutate into a killer as H1N1 does, but H1N1 has done it before in our limited memory, therefore the heightened fear of it. Just human nature at work.
I am more worried about AIDS mutating into an airborne or contact strain. Or ebola related viruses getting loose.

BTW, what ever happened to SARS?

Originally Posted by BC-Axeman

BTW, what ever happened to SARS?

Lance, they turned it into an Atari game:

Interesting BC-Axeman....

In my field of work I have to gather large amounts of information from many fields and then, based on a number of "short-cut" approaches, evaluate and implement that information. This system usually works quite well, but that is largely due to a safety-net built into my method. That safety-net just means delving deeper into the research when need be, to a variable level.

I had formed a fairly useful opinion on the H1N1. It was that "the virus is no more deadly now, but it could get more deadly, it is reasonable to protect from it". The minimal genetic drift concept was given to me by an internist and it seemed to work within my set opinion. Your challenge made me look deeper and I am having a hard time justifying that viewpoint.

Most interesting at this point is a review of the genetic sequence of the swine flu virus that shows that a particular virulence factor, protein PB1-F2, believed by some to play an important role in determining illness severity and risk of complications (secondary bacterial pneumonia), is blocked by maybe two stop-codons and then a mutation from serine to asparagine. So, a whole lot of genetic rearrangement would be needed to cause that to happen.

Of course, this would be to assume that the PB1-F2 protein is important in prospective pandemic versions of human infecting virus (as opposed to animal model research or retrospective analysis), and that PB1-F2 is (a)/(the only) important determiner of illness severity (which is severely near-sighted viewpoint).

None the less, thank you....it would seem that you may have helped me find a weakness in my information at a crucial time, helping me correct that deficiency. What is your background?

All that said, I trust in vaccines. Vaccines and the birth control pill; arguably the biggest and best medical discoveries of all time. Every illness I can prevent, is a battle won before it ever started.

Cheers

John

[Thrak]

Originally Posted by Cyanide

All that said, I trust in vaccines. Vaccines and the birth control pill; arguably the biggest and best medical discoveries of all time. Every illness I can prevent, is a battle won before it ever started.

Cheers

John

Even if the vaccine you trust could cause life altering neurological damage? Or if the vaccine itself could be responsible for more deaths than the affliction you're trying to protect yourself from? Not to get political, but dont you find it disheartening that world leaders arent getting the vaccine, and if they are, its a different one thats offered to you and I?

Scary stuff....

Originally Posted by Cyanide

Interesting BC-Axeman....

...

Most interesting at this point is a review of the genetic sequence of the swine flu virus that shows that a particular virulence factor, protein PB1-F2, believed by some to play an important role in determining illness severity and risk of complications (secondary bacterial pneumonia), is blocked by maybe two stop-codons and then a mutation from serine to asparagine. So, a whole lot of genetic rearrangement would be needed to cause that to happen.

Of course, this would be to assume that the PB1-F2 protein is important in prospective pandemic versions of human infecting virus (as opposed to animal model research or retrospective analysis), and that PB1-F2 is (a)/(the only) important determiner of illness severity (which is severely near-sighted viewpoint).

None the less, thank you....it would seem that you may have helped me find a weakness in my information at a crucial time, helping me correct that deficiency. What is your background?

All that said, I trust in vaccines. Vaccines and the birth control pill; arguably the biggest and best medical discoveries of all time. Every illness I can prevent, is a battle won before it ever started.

Cheers

John

A very detailed version of the explanation I have read that correlated into the opinion I have formed.

I am an esoteric philosophical person with a high capacity to absorb, assimilate and correlate information and observe connections and disconnects. That is why I'm such a good troubleshooter. And I read a lot.

I am not worried about the vaccine. I will not get it only because it seems clear to me that I don't need it. I have been in close contact with more than 10 persons that have had swine flu and so far I haven't seemed to contract it, or if I have it showed minimal symptoms, as has been happening.

Every major event in human awareness has a conspiracy theory. Even minor events get them, sometimes. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

Well, that does sound fairly conspiracy theory-like. I would want some proof before I believed that. Being a military doc, I have not heard of any "special vaccines". Considering we are the ones that deal directly with our political leaders on frequent occassion, I would have expected some information to come my way. I got the vaccine yesterday. And I don't believe this is going to result in any neurological damage. That probably refers to the chicken pox vaccine developed in the 1970's. Hey, live and learn I guess. If you have humans in the algorithm, expect occassional human errors. Its pretty unlikely that a botch-job like that vaccine will ever happen again.

I hope you aren't talking about the mercury in the thimerosal causing autism myth. That has been repeated and thoroughly debunked on every possible level. Quite frankly, too much good money was wasted disproving that over and over again. Money that could have been used to further other medical research. The only ones sticking to it are the crack-pots.

Beyond that, the only mentionable risk is Guillian Barre Syndrome. Over 90% of that completely recovers, the high high high majority of cases are sporadic and can't be pegged to any particular trigger, and probably occurs more sporadically than anything else. I would certainly fear the complications of a nasty flu than I would the GBS. But, that boils down to likelihood ratios (its far more likely to get a bacterial pneumonia secondary from getting swine flu than it would getting GBS from the vaccine)

Oh man Cyanide, you just reminded me of a holy ^%$# moment from years ago.

We were on the ground in Saudi back during DS when we got our vaccine "updates".

They started that evening after dinner chow. The following morning, TWO guys had Bell's Palsy.

Guess how many guys showed up after Breakfast for their shots???

[Thrak]

German officials getting alternative vaccine...
http://www.spiegel.de/international/...656028,00.html

President Obama saying his daughters wont get the vaccine, and he hasnt gotten the H1N1 either.

The swine flu vaccine in the 70's killed more people than the swine flu did.

I've also read that people who get yearly flu vaccines are more likely to contract the H1N1 variant and it is more aggressive in them, compared to those who do not get a yearly flu vaccine.

This guy thinks its no good, he seems to know a little bit on the vaccine in the 70's.
http://blogs.browardpalmbeach.com/ju...nyder_argu.php


Are you guys getting the SmithKline vaccine up there?

OK, hold on....I think I know what you are talking about. True, there are two versions of the vaccine. One has an addjuvant, one does not. Long and the short of it, I would take the adjuvant version (I did) over the non-adjuvant version. The adjuvant version is probably more effective, but there is always some anxiety over giving adjuvant to pregnant women....just like I wouldn't want to give certain drugs to pregnant women, largely to avoid a perceived risk vs a real risk. I call it "rational medical caution".

And, we really have to get away from the fear of the medical past. You know, the high majority of us in the health industry are trying to learn from past mistakes, are trying as hard as possible to improve lives, and really believe in what we are doing. There really isn't nearly as much conspiracy and profiteering as you want to believe. There are much easier ways to get rich than in medicine.

As for the rest of your post........well, for purposes of forum happiness, I am going to not touch those many kettles of fish.

And hey, Tobii3...what can I say. There are risks to everything. There is risks to eating your supper tonight. If I told you about how many people choked and died on steak every night....would you stop eating steak? I could tell a pretty compelling story. But it would be just that....one story. If I balanced it with the millions of stories of all the people that enjoyed their steaks tonight, would you find that one story of choking as compelling?

Still, despite the frequently told few cases of disaster (I use the word "few" here for illustration of volumes, not to belittle those tragedies) I still stand behind the MILLIONS of untold cases of success. I still believe the risks of the virus far exceed the risks of the vaccine. I can't tell the future, I can't avoid the inevitable, but I can make decisions to hedge my bets against tragedy.

Oh no, Cyanide, the Bells palsy was totally unrelated - but the pucker factor went through the roof!!!!

&^%$....just seeing someone with Bell's Palsy freaks most people out...having it happen the night they started giving boosters?? Priceless.

My in this matter:

First off, 2 of our kids have had it already, and the rest of us have been spared so far. They got it before we could get vaccinations done at the doctor. The scariest thing about it is how high their fevers were getting. Both of them were close to needing to go into Urgent Care. But it stayed below the threshold. It wasn't a puky flu, as you imagine it to be. It was VERY much an upper respiratory issue. For a while after their fevers broke they both were still coughing a lot and coughing up congestion. YUCK.

I work for a pharmaceutical company, and have taken courses in regulatory affairs. I know the stringent testing that all of these product need to go through and the qualifications that they need to meet for the FDA to approve them. The regulations have improved TREMENDOUSLY over the years. The industry and FDA react to adverse events very swiftly now, and have learned from the mistakes in the past. Safety and efficacy MUST be shown before any pharma product (or device) will be approved to go to market. While there is a rush for companies to get these products approved and gain market share, they are also keenly aware that if their product is not safe that it will have a HUGE negative impact on all of the rest of their product lines. There are several different ways that these thigns are tested before they get to the market, as well. There are lab studies, potentially animal studies, and then possibly human studies (though not every product goes through or needs to go through each type of study). With something like a flu vaccine, history allows them to be developed and get to market faster than many standard products. I don't know the intricacies of it, but if all they are doing is finding a diferent strain that they need to vaccinate against, I would think that a simple substitution would be the path chosen. Again, that is conjecture on my part, but seems like a reasonable path, given my knowledge of the system.

[acruce]

Went to the doctor today and found out I have the dreaded and feared swine flu. This sux.

[Sauer Grapes]

Originally Posted by acruce

Went to the doctor today and found out I have the dreaded and feared swine flu. This sux.

How you doing? Doctor was pretty sure I had it when I went to urgent care on Tuesday. They didn't test though. I had a temp of 100.5, so mild, some aches, few chills, bad chest congestion, headache and loopiness. Gave me tamiflu and other than being completely worn out on Wednesday, I've more or less been fine with a cough. I worked from home yesterday and today so I didn't spread it to anyone, but really, I think I could have gone in.

If I had it, I had what must have been the mildest form. From what I've heard from a friend that had confirmed swine flu, I had many of the same symptoms but less severe.

Originally Posted by BC-Axeman

BTW, what ever happened to SARS?

Originally Posted by acruce

Went to the doctor today and found out I have the dreaded and feared swine flu. This sux.

Hang in there bud....most get it and are done with it in a week. Not to worry.

[St. Lou Stu]

One more casualty.
It started off Thursday morning as an itch in my throat and a headache.... both after a hard night of drinking and smoking... but not that hard, so I was like WTF?
By noon Thursday, I knew I was down for the count. I took about a 1.5 hour nap on a sidewalk outside the LasVegas Convention Center. The fever just kept going up. I checked with the airline and got a mask and a blanket for the ride home. I was actually surprised that they allowed me to board since I gave them ALL of the symptoms that I had and that relate to H1N1. Finally rolled in my door a 02:00 Friday Morning and this is the first I have moved since then. Still feel like dog snot, but the fever has started to subside.

yuck, but I still think regular stomach flu is worse.

[acarr]

I have a 5 month old and decided for her sake that I needed to get the vaccination. So I got crap stuck in my nose today.