[SvilleKid]

Some probably call me a pessimistic, and say that my attitude only fuels the crisis. I say that I lived through the 1979-2001 recession, which was much worse than any since then. I was in the real estate appraisal business then, self employed, and had a handle on the economic issues. I recognized the coming recession a good 6 months before it was mentioned in the main stream press. With a pending marriage, and suspecting the probably extent of the coming recession, I took a position with the state's largest bank in 1980, with the responsibility of dealing with foreclosures and foreclosed properties.

Many of the same developer practices present then are present now. With the exception of negligible interest rates now, many of the same political and economic factors present the are present now. The historic low interest rates is actually a hindrance today, in that the FED loses lowering interest rates as a way to "warm" the market back up. Like it or not, the collapsed real estate market is at the heart of the current problems, and that collapse was evident (at least to me and others being realistic) as long as two years ago. At that time, I told my son and wife that we would be in a collapsed real estate market inside of two years, and that it would take at least two years to turn it around, and another 12 to 18 months to return to a positive real estate market that would support a growing economy.

We ARE in a recession. No heads hidden in the sand. Won't change the facts. I kinda stand by my predictions for 36 to 42 months to get back close to where we were a year ago. So, say Fall, 2010, but more probable Spring, 2011. Now, though, I'm wishy-washy. When the July and September NYSE numbers are removed from the rolling three month averages, we will see that the stock market has had MORE volitility than existed after the stock market crash that ushered in the Great Depression. ALL the REAL economic numbers point to BAD, BAD times, not to cheery times ahead. And, the people in charge, and thos that will be in charge are all pursuing potential policies that are no more than band aides on an open chest wound.

God, Dave, I wish I was wrong. Hope I am wrong. Pray about being wrong. I am not one that has stopped spending, but I also have gotten myself in as good of a financial position as possible in this market.

I won't starve, the house is paid for, and I can bring the family back home and tough things out if things turn really ugly. I hope they don't turn ugly, but I WILL NOT bet my future on the failure of others to realistically look at all factors, not just the ones they are feed by those with ulterior motives. To many basic economic indicators are wrong at this time. And, consumer confidence is a reactive (or following) indicator, not a leading, controlling indicator. While feeling good is always best from a mental health standpoint, it cannot lead an economy out of failure unless there are realistic changes to the good that the Consumer confidence Index can react to.

Pessimistic or realistic?? I don't know about others. I do know that currently, and looking to the next 18 months, i see nothing to be Optimistic about.