Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Copied this from another board. Interesting reading and requires some investigating (for me anyway) to understand the implications. Put on your tinfoil hat just in case. :ss

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In a discussion this morning with a cell biologist and medical doctor working at Johns Hopkins, my friend thought this 4-part flu combination is highly unusual and looks like it could be man-made. Especially because it has an avian strain. My doctor friend (he's Taiwanese) explained that in Asia, it's common for a avian-swine-human flu to happen naturally, but this virus first showed up in Mexico, where pigs and ducks are not usually raised together. Also, recombination of more than 2-different flu viruses is extremely rare. I'm just repeating what he said as an expert in the field. He says the CDC needs to explain if there is a possibility that we are under a bio-weapon attack.

From CDC via Wikipedia: 

Anne Schuchat, director of CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said that the American cases were found to be made up of genetic elements from four different flu viruses -- North American swine influenza, North American avian influenza, human influenza A virus subtype H1N1, and swine influenza virus typically found in Asia and Europe. 



For two cases a complete genome sequence had been obtained. She said that the virus was resistant to amantadine and rimantadine, but susceptible to oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza).[22][23][24] Preliminary genetic characterization found that the hemagglutinin (HA) gene was similar to that of swine flu viruses present in U.S. pigs since 1999, but the neuraminidase (NA) and matrix protein (M) genes resembled versions present in European swine flu isolates. Viruses with this genetic makeup had not previously been found to be circulating in humans or pigs, but there is no formal national surveillance system to determine what viruses are circulating in pigs in the U.S.[25] 



The seasonal influenza strain H1N1 vaccine is thought to be unlikely to provide protection.[26]



Here's more from AP via Seattle Post Intelligencer: The worrisome new virus - which combines genetic material from pigs, birds and humans in a way researchers have not seen before - also sickened at least eight people in Texas and California, though there have been no deaths in the U.S.



"We are very, very concerned," World Health Organization spokesman Thomas Abraham said. "We have what appears to be a novel virus and it has spread from human to human ... It's all hands on deck at the moment."



Update: doctor friend also says that what is also unusual is that this type/combination virus is the based on the same strain as in the 1918 Spanish flu virus (H1N1) outbreak (extremely deadly, 25 million dead in 25 weeks; total dead 50-100 million dead; 2.5%-5% of the world population). This makes the virus extremely deadly. The likelihood that this combination with the most deadly strain would happen naturally is very, very low.



From Reuters via Los Angeles Times: 
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...pr25,0,5114253 .story



The CDC has analyzed samples of the H1N1 virus from some of the U.S. patients, all of whom have recovered, and said it is a never-before-seen mixture of viruses from swine, birds and humans.


Not really, the creators may be betting that this highly deadly strain further mutates. According to my Doctor source from JHU, it is not necessary to do it in the lab, when nature gets hold of it the virus evolves on its own, it can become very deadly. According to, the natural mutation rate of Influenza virus is 1.5 *10^(-5) per nucleotide per infectious cycle (each individual replication within the cell). That means each of the millions of cells in one body that becomes infected will be mutated at a rate of 1.5 *10^(-5) (10^(-5) = 1.5/10,000) 



From the Journal of Virology: 
http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/abstract/59/2/377

More from Reuters: (CDC acting director Dr. Richard Besser) Besser said the CDC is being "very aggressive" said it was time for people in the United States to think about what to do if this does turn out to be a pandemic."

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...53O0MW20090425 
More info also from Wikipedia, but certified by my doctor (JHU) friend: 



"H1N1 is a subtype of the species Influenza A virus. H1N1 has mutated into various strains including the Spanish Flu strain (now extinct in the wild), mild human flu strains, endemic pig strains, and various strains found in birds.



A variant of H1N1 was responsible for the Spanish flu pandemic that killed some 50 million to 100 million people worldwide over about a year in 1918 and 1919.[1] A different variant exists in pig populations. 



Controversy arose in October 2005, after the H1N1 genome was published in the journal Science. Many[who?] fear that this information could be used for bioterrorism. [citation needed] 



"When he compared the 1918 virus with today's human flu viruses, Dr. Taubenberger noticed that it had alterations in just 25 to 30 of the virus's 4,400 amino acids. Those few changes turned a bird virus into a killer that could spread from person to person."[2] 



Low pathogenic H1N1 strains still exist in the wild today, causing roughly half of all flu infections in 2006.[3] 



Since mid-March 2009, over 500 cases, including at least 68 deaths, have been reported in Mexico from an outbreak a new strain of H1N1.[4][5][6] 



At least some of these cases result from the same strain of H1N1 that was isolated in 9 US patients in California and Texas.[7]"



General influenza mortality rate is 0.1%, that means this is 20 times more deadly (2.0%), that's really bad. If the virus mutates in the general population, the mortality rate will likely increase. (It can mutate to become less deadly, but nobody would notice, we can hope, but that's not a strategy to combat infectious diseases.) The 1918 influenza virus mortality rate was 2%-20%.) 



If one million people get the virus, 20,000 dead, at current rates.



Mutation is neutral, that means that 50% will be more deadly and 50% less deadly, but at a mutation rate of 1.5/10,000 per per nucleotide per infectious cycle, 50% of these mutation will be more deadly. And, since this virus has already mutated to become extremely deadly (i.e., 1918), the possibility of this super, possibly human-engineered, 4-virus combination (strain) to become extremely deadly again is greater than 0. How much greater, we don't know with current information.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Ever read "The Demon in the Freezer" by Richard Preston, Fred?

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

I will now. ;)

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

I think you will find it interesting...let me know if you can't find a copy, I think mine is in my desk at work somewhere.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

I found it on Amazon in paperback.

Here are a couple of reviews for others.

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

On December 9, 1979, smallpox, the most deadly human virus, ceased to exist in nature. After eradication, it was confined to freezers located in just two places on earth: the Center for Disease Control in Atlanta and the Maximum Containment Laboratory in Siberia. But these final samples were not destroyed at that time, and now secret stockpiles of smallpox surely exist. For example, since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, and the subsequent end of its biological weapons program, a sizeable amount of the former Soviet Union's smallpox stockpile remains unaccounted for, leading to fears that the virus has fallen into the hands of nations or terrorist groups willing to use it as a weapon. Scarier yet, some may even be trying to develop a strain that is resistant to vaccines. This disturbing reality is the focus of this fascinating, terrifying, and important book.

A longtime contributor to The New Yorker and author of the bestseller The Hot Zone, Preston is a skillful journalist whose work flows like a science fiction thriller. Based on extensive interviews with smallpox experts, health workers, and members of the U.S. intelligence community, The Demon in the Freezer details the history and behavior of the virus and how it was eventually isolated and eradicated by the heroic individuals of the World Health Organization. Preston also explains why a battle still rages between those who want to destroy all known stocks of the virus and those who want to keep some samples alive until a cure is found. This is a bitterly contentious point between scientists. Some worry that further testing will trigger a biological arms race, while others argue that more research is necessary since there are currently too few available doses of the vaccine to deal with a major outbreak. The anthrax scare of October, 2001, which Preston also writes about in this book, has served to reinforce the present dangers of biological warfare.

As Preston eloquently states in this powerful book, this scourge, once contained, was let loose again due to human weakness: "The virus's last strategy for survival was to bewitch its host and become a source of power. We could eradicate smallpox from nature, but we could not uproot the virus from the human heart." --Shawn Carkonen --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

From Publishers Weekly

Never mind Ebola, the hemorrhagic disease that was the main subject of Preston's 1994 #1 bestseller, The Hot Zone. What we really should be worrying about, explains Preston in this terrifying, cautionary new title, is smallpox, or variola. But wasn't that eradicated? many might ask, particularly older Americans who remember painful vaccinations and the resultant scars. Officially, yes, nods Preston, who devotes the first half of the book to the valorous attempt by an army of volunteers to wipe out the virus (an attempt initially sparked by '60s icon Ram Dass and his Indian guru) via strategic vaccination; in 1977 the last case of naturally occurring smallpox was documented in Somalia, and today the variola virus exists officially in only two storage depots, in Russia and at the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta (in the freezer of the title). To believe that variola is not held elsewhere, however, is nonsense, argues Preston, who delves into the possibility that several nations, including Iraq and Russia, have recently worked or are currently working with smallpox as a biological weapon.

The author devotes much space to the anthrax attacks of last fall, mostly to demonstrate how easily a devastating assault with smallpox could occur here. He includes an interview with Steven Hatfill, who has received much press coverage for the FBI's investigation of him regarding those attacks; his description of meeting Hatfill, hallmarked by a quick character sketch ("He was a vital, engaging man, with a sharp mind and a sense of humor.... He was heavy-set but looked fit, and he had dark blue eyes") is emblematic of what makes this New Yorker regular's writing so gripping. Preston humanizes his science reportage by focusing on individuals-scientists, patients, physicians, government figures. That, and a flair for teasing out without overstatement the drama in his inherently compelling topics, plus a prose style that's simple and forceful, make this book as exciting as the best thrillers, yet scarier by far, for Preston's pages deal with clear, present and very real dangers.

Copyright 2002 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

That's the one, Fred. :tu

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Scary book, that one.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Mostly because it seem plausible.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

yep.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

The original article makes reference to the 1918 Spanish flu virus...my understanding is that, until recently, there were literally no remaining samples of the virus in the world--through the decades, nobody thought to save any.

Even a concerted effort by scientists to recover a sample from the graves of known flu victims turned up nothing until a few years ago, when a mass grave of 1918 flu victims in Alaskan permafrost finally yielded samples for researchers.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

The thing scary about the swine flu is that a lot of the dead are healthy young adults 20-40 years old. Those people are supposed to be the most likely to survive.

Also scary is the fact the wife is flying to AZ right now via TX.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

I was watching Anderson Cooper 360 last night and they were in the Congo with a leading epidemiologist (sp?) who was showing how the diseases, like AIDS, that jump from animals to humans can really become resistant to vaccines and really spread globally in very little time with the ease of air travel.

Granted, not many here are hacking monkeys and getting in contact with their blood, but it's still scary.

Heck, not far from me, in Lake county, I think they still eat armadillos.

The doctor was saying there are signs of very strong and scary diseases emerging and he seems to think it is a question of "when" and not "if" we are faced with a very large global pandemic.

I went to bed kind of scared.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

I have to agree with your doctor on this one. Humans have been plagued by epidemics for probably all of known history. The questions are when is the next one going to spread like wildfire and what will it be.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

It wasn't actually MY doctor. It was the doctor trudging through the Congo jungle with Sanjay Gupta examining the bush kill.

Now my doctor, he said my prostate is in fine condition just a couple weeks ago.......

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Man am I glad to hear that....to think I was sitting here worried about your prostate.:r

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

It's just been declared an emergency

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Here's the email from my work yesterday. I sure hope I don' have to wear a surgical mask on the train this week, it's too hot out for that...

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Here's a link you may find informative.

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/recentActive.do

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Great! Just effin great! Im goin to LA for a week on Friday! No I dont want to go and I'll be honest Im kinda scared:(

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

3 news crews were stalking the employee entrance to my work today. We activated the Incident Command Center over the weekend to address the Queens outbreak. As of this morning, no additional cases have been confirmed.

All I can say is that I'm living in hand sanitizer right now.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Swine Flu is nothing to worry about. I will not contribute to the panic that is going on at my work place about it. When, more than 1000 people die from it then start worrying

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

anyone ever see outbreak?

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

The "politically correct" term is now "Mexican flu" or "H1N1 strain". I'm not joking. The pork industry is starting to take a hit.
I caught the "Russian flu" of '77-'78. It was H1N1. It was a very bad flu. First time I realized a flu can kill you.
Most people die of secondary infections. The virus can cause pulmonary edema (fluid filling your lungs) directly. You try to inhale and nothing happens.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Received over 300 doses of Tamiflu at my pharmacy from corporate this morning.

Guess it's better to have too much, than not enough.

We've been getting 6-7 scripts a day for it this week. We'll see what happens..

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Somebody mentioned on PBS this morning that you can't get the swine flu from eating pork. Well, DUH. Are people that dumb?

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

If it does hit the US hard, I am not sure what would be worse...sitting at home suffering from the flu or trying to keep up at work with everyone out sick. The most probable scenario is you will get to do a little of both.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

:tpd:
This is the safest time to live in the history of the world. I'm cautious, but not getting caught up in the media's scare tactics.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

:r I know than must be a rhetorical question!

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

I think there are worse things out there that need our attention. Like all the antibiotic resistant bugs.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

I was just looking at the Spanish flu of 1918 stats and it looks like my age group did all right. :D

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Hundreds of kids in NY? This is not good.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Actually, it's the politically correct that were calling it the swine flu, vice Mexican. Large scale/pandemic influenza outbreaks have long been named for where the seem to originate, e.g. the asiatic (1889), spanish (1918), asian (1957), hong kong (1968) and russian (1977) flu's. I suspect people were worried about offending mexico...

I think what we need is a UN commission to develop a flu naming convention to ensure no one is offended during future pandemics. /sarcasm :D

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

I swear i cause a dr. at work to have a heart attack, I told her we had a possible swin flu patient and she like flipped out. Didn't even tell her I was kidding.
Lets see what happens.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

You know, some times I wonder if it's just the media or if it really could be a pandemic :hm

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Ex Wife #2 is the infection control nurse for a large catholic hospital here and she has meetings planned all week. They are concerned.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

This one sounds worse, but remember the big avian bird flu a couple years ago that wound up being no big epidemic. I'm a little upset with Matt Drudge that most of his news lately is dealing with the swine flu. You can't be too cautious, but I hate that the media is scaring everyone to death.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Katie's dad is in charge of Risk Management at Notre Dame and he's been in meetings too. Hell they actually had somebody on campus come down with it.

That's what I'm talking about. I'm sure it's a serious thing, but the media puts everyone in a state of panic that I'm not sure is warranted. Oh well...we will see how it plays out in the next few weeks.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

IMHO, whenever the media mentions a virus, infection, disease, etc., there will be an increase in the number of cases reported. A lot of people that would not have gone to the doctor and or hospital, when they were sick, will go after it is reported by the media. Therefore the number of cases will rise.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

http://www.wired.com/science/discove...dayintech_0324
Deja Vu, anyone?

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

I just read that the European Union health commissioner wants to rename it the "novel flu." Uh that's great and everything, but what do we name the next one? Novel flu II?:rolleyes: Maybe we should name pandemics like hurricanes.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

We(New York City Department of Health)'re expecting this thing to grow exponentially over the next few days since transmission of the virus between the students first diagnosed and their family has been confirmed. The good news is that it doesn't appear to be particularly strong with all cases showing only "mild" illness. There was apparently a death of a 24 month old in Texas from this, but that isn't uncommon with any flu.

The reason for the big concern is that this is a new strain. We don't have a vaccine for it and it moves from human to human quickly and easily. Should this one mutate and become stronger (more deadly), we won't be able to do much to stop it.

Personally, I'm not worried about it. There are 9.1 million people in this city (latest estimate) and only 44 cases have been confirmed as of last night. I have better odds of winning the $200+ million megamillion lottery Friday than getting this flu.

And for those who haven't read it, Steven King's The Stand is a great read.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

An article on the news was saying that if you were sick in the last few weeks, you might have had the swine flu and gotten over it already.

They really put it into perspective showing how 30,000 or more people die from the flu every year.

Hopefully, this year's flu shot will include the swine flu.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

+1 on "The Stand" :tu

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

They just had a reported case of it at Branham Highschool, it's about 3 blocks from my house. School is closed for a week.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

They may cancel fans from attending the Spanish GP in a week because of this. 70K fans with worthless tickets...

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

They're missing the point.

The normal flu kills the sick, the very young and the elderly.

The 1918 flu and this one kill the healthy.

The difference is not insignificant.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

No, it's down right SCARY!

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Then again, most people who have contracted this one had only mild flulike symptoms. Many people may have had it already and not been counted in the stats.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Are you serious? This has reached hysteric levels.

Re: Lets talk about the Swine flu...
 

Yeah man, I'm serious.

http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_122527...e=most_emailed

:(